Behavioral finance meets venture capital. This paper investigates the 'Overconfidence Bias' among VCs—the tendency to overestimate the precision of their information and their ability to pick winners. The findings are stark: overconfident VCs tend to invest in riskier, later-stage deals with lower due diligence standards, often falling prey to the 'Hot Hand Fallacy'. While they shoot for more moonshots, their risk-adjusted returns often lag behind more disciplined, data-driven investors who adhere to strict thesis guardrails.

VCs judge founders on bias, but they rarely judge themselves. This archive is a mirror for investors to check their own ego. For founders, it explains the irrational behavior of some investors who chase hype cycles (like AI or Web3) without fundamentals. It underscores the value of the 'Prepared Mind' over the 'Gut Feeling' in capital allocation.