Margevicius surveys the 2022 downturn arguing better times are hidden within a bleak picture: European VC investment fell to under $85 billion from 2021's $104 billion peak, layoffs cost 14,000 European tech jobs and wiped out over $400 billion in valuation, and German investment dropped from nearly €19 billion to about €11.9 billion. Yet capital is still flowing to strong performers, DeepL and Fashion Cloud among them, and cash strapped companies are turning to alternatives outside traditional VC, including bridge loans, structured equity, convertible notes, and participating bonds, citing Gopuff's roughly $2.5 billion in convertible notes raised over two years. Southeast Asian VCs are holding dry powder to see which companies survive Q1 2023 before committing further, and Margevicius argues founders who build through this harsher environment will emerge more strategic and disciplined than those who raised easily in 2021.

Founders whose companies are performing but still struggling to close a traditional priced round get a concrete menu of alternative capital sources actually used by real companies, rather than a vague suggestion to explore non-dilutive funding. The Gopuff example, roughly $2.5 billion raised through convertible notes rather than equity, gives founders a specific benchmark for how much capital a strong but out of favor company can still access outside a traditional VC round during a downturn. The observation that Southeast Asian VCs deliberately held back dry powder to watch which companies survived Q1 2023 is also a useful signal for founders in that region timing a raise, since it suggests a track record of resilience may matter more to investors right now than growth alone.