Endeavor Catalyst's team lays out ten 2024 predictions for emerging market venture capital, forecasting that AI moves from hype toward utility as high compute costs favor incumbents, and that Central and Eastern European AI startups, having raised over $4.2 billion from 2021-2023, keep gaining ground. Down rounds, at a 10-year high of 17% in Q3 2023 versus just 5% in 2021, are framed as a healthy correction rather than a death knell, while regional growth-equity funds like Bicycle Capital begin filling a persistent later-stage funding gap in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The team also predicts renewed foreign interest in Latin America, rising Gulf IPOs in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, African startups consolidating through M&A, zombie public companies (11.5% of US listed stocks) going private or bankrupt, continued Southeast Asian greentech growth, and crypto gaining legitimacy after the first Bitcoin spot ETF approval.

Investors and founders operating outside Silicon Valley get a forecast built specifically around emerging markets, from a fund with 26 years of on-the-ground experience and 300 investments in these regions, rather than the US-centric predictions that dominate most annual VC outlook pieces. The reframing of rising down rounds as a healthy market correction rather than a crisis is a useful perspective for founders anxious about accepting a flat or down valuation, since the piece argues explicitly that a down round should not be treated as a death knell for the company. The specific, named example of Bicycle Capital filling a later-stage growth equity gap in Latin America is also a concrete signal for founders in underserved regions that larger checks are becoming more available locally, rather than only through foreign investors who tend to withdraw once market conditions cool.